3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · Nordstrand vs Heming
Likeliest: Heming win · 44%
We make it 40% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 25%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nordstrand29%26%+3
OursMarket
Draw27%20%+7
OursMarket
Heming44%54%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 75% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 46% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 80% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 32% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nordstrand
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Gamle Oslo FK (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Vålerenga IF II (H)0-3
- Sep 26 · at Asker (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Lokomotiv Oslo (H)5-0
- Sep 12 · at FK Union Carl Berner (A)1-1
Heming
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 13 · v KFUM Oslo II (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Konnerud IL (A)5-5
- Sep 26 · v Ullern (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at Grei (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · v Frigg (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Nordstrand | Heming |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-4 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.