Superettan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 10 · 15:00 · Norrby IF vs Östers IF
Likeliest: Norrby IF win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norrby IF42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Östers IF31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norrby IF
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 20 · at Helsingborg (A)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Varbergs BoIS (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · at Ljungskile SK (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Landskrona (H)1-3
- Aug 31 · at GIF Sundsvall (A)0-1
Östers IF
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Norrköping (H)1-3
- Sep 15 · at Värnamo (A)3-1
- Sep 10 · at Falkenbergs FF (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v United IK Nordic (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Sandvikens IF (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Norrby IF | Östers IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-3 | 4-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.