Superettan (Sweden) · Tue, Oct 13 · 17:00 · Norrköping vs GIF Sundsvall
Likeliest: Norrköping win · 79%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 79% for the home win. The market says 76%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norrköping79%76%+3
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−2
OursMarket
GIF Sundsvall8%9%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 91% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norrköping
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at Östers IF (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v IK Oddevold (H)0-0
- Sep 10 · at Varbergs BoIS (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v Ljungskile SK (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at United IK Nordic (A)3-1
GIF Sundsvall
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · v Ljungskile SK (H)3-2
- Sep 15 · at Landskrona (A)0-4
- Sep 10 · v Örebro (H)0-3
- Sep 5 · at IK Brage (A)1-0
- Aug 31 · v Norrby IF (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Norrköping | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.