Superettan (Sweden) · Tue, Oct 20 · 17:00 · Norrköping vs Örebro
Likeliest: Norrköping win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norrköping53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Örebro22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norrköping
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 13 · v GIF Sundsvall (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at Östers IF (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v IK Oddevold (H)0-0
- Sep 10 · at Varbergs BoIS (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v Ljungskile SK (H)2-2
Örebro
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Ljungskile SK (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Sandvikens IF (A)2-4
- Sep 14 · v United IK Nordic (H)1-1
- Sep 10 · at GIF Sundsvall (A)3-0
- Sep 7 · v Östersunds FK (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Norrköping | Örebro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.