NWSL (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:00 · North Carolina Courage vs San Diego Wave FC
Likeliest: San Diego Wave FC win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
North Carolina Courage36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
San Diego Wave FC37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 56% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
North Carolina Courage
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 3 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)1-0
- Sep 27 · at Utah Royals FC (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v NJ/NY Gotham FC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at San Diego Wave FC (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Chicago Stars FC (A)6-0
San Diego Wave FC
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · at Orlando Pride (A)2-1
- Sep 25 · at Racing Louisville (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Kansas City Current (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v North Carolina Courage (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | North Carolina Courage | San Diego Wave FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-4 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.