UEFA Nations League · Sat, Oct 3 · 18:45 · North Macedonia vs Scotland
Likeliest: Scotland win · 56%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
North Macedonia14%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+2
OursMarket
Scotland56%54%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 26% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.5 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
North Macedonia
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 29 · at Slovenia (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Switzerland (H)0-3
- Jun 1 · at Türkiye (A)0-4
- Jun 1 · at Turkey (A)0-4
- May 29 · at Bosnia and Herzegovina (A)0-0
Scotland
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 29 · v Switzerland (H)0-3
- Sep 26 · at Slovenia (A)0-0
- Jun 24 · v Brazil (H)0-3
- Jun 19 · v Morocco (H)0-1
- Jun 14 · at Haiti (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | North Macedonia | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.