League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:30 · Northampton Town vs Colchester United
Likeliest: Northampton Town win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Northampton Town42%45%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Colchester United27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 62% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Northampton Town
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Grimsby Town (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · at York City (A)1-1
- Oct 6 · at Cambridge United (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Rotherham United (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)0-2
Colchester United
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Exeter City (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Newport County (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Luton Town (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)2-2
- Sep 22 · at Peterborough United (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Northampton Town | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.