League Two (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:45 · Northampton Town vs Oldham Athletic
Likeliest: Oldham Athletic win · 38%
Likely scores: 1–1 15% · 0–0 11% · 0–1 10%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Northampton Town29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Oldham Athletic38%38%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 45% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Northampton Town
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 31 · at Accrington Stanley (A)1-1
- Oct 24 · v Colchester United (H)2-0
- Oct 20 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)0-1
- Oct 17 · at Grimsby Town (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · at York City (A)1-1
Oldham Athletic
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 31 · v Crawley Town (H)0-1
- Oct 24 · at Barnet (A)1-1
- Oct 20 · at Walsall (A)0-3
- Oct 17 · v Cheltenham Town (H)3-1
- Oct 13 · v Leeds United U21 (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Northampton Town | Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.