Indian Super League (India) · Sun, Oct 18 · 14:00 · NorthEast United vs Kerala Blasters
Likeliest: NorthEast United win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NorthEast United36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Kerala Blasters35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NorthEast United
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 12 · v Mohun Bagan Super Giant (H)1-0
- May 19 · v Mohammedan (H)2-0
- May 10 · v Chennaiyin (H)4-1
- May 2 · v Inter Kashi (H)3-2
- Apr 24 · v Goa (H)0-2
Kerala Blasters
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Inter Kashi FC (A)2-0
- May 18 · v Goa (H)2-1
- May 10 · v Mohammedan (H)3-1
- Apr 23 · v Odisha FC (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · v Jamshedpur (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | NorthEast United | Kerala Blasters |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.