UEFA Nations League · Mon, Oct 5 · 18:45 · Northern Ireland vs Georgia
Likeliest: Georgia win · 34%
A 32% draw. The market says 28%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Northern Ireland33%38%−5
OursMarket
Draw32%28%+5
OursMarket
Georgia34%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 47% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 62% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 72% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Northern Ireland
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 2 · at Ukraine (A)3-0
- Sep 28 · v Hungary (H)0-0
- Sep 25 · at Georgia (A)0-0
- Jun 8 · at France (A)1-3
- Jun 4 · v Guinea (H)1-0
Georgia
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 2 · at Hungary (A)0-1
- Sep 28 · v Ukraine (H)0-0
- Sep 25 · v Northern Ireland (H)0-0
- Jun 5 · v Bahrain (H)2-0
- Jun 2 · v Romania (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Northern Ireland | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.