Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 21 · 15:00 · Norwich City vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 45%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City45%12%+33
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Birmingham City31%64%−34
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 36% | +34 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 88% | −33 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 16% | +44 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
WinLossWinWinWin
- Feb 14 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-1
- Feb 10 · at Oxford United (A)3-0
- Feb 7 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-0
- Jan 31 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
- Jan 26 · v Coventry City (H)2-1
Birmingham City
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Feb 15 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Feb 10 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-0
- Feb 7 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
- Jan 31 · at Oxford United (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · v Stoke City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.