Championship (England) · Wed, Sep 9 · 18:45 · Norwich City vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City51%48%+3
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Birmingham City24%26%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 65% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 5 · at Sheffield United (A)3-1
- Sep 1 · at Stoke City (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Burnley (H)4-1
- Aug 25 · at Cardiff City (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Millwall (A)0-3
Birmingham City
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 6 · v Wolverhampton (H)2-2
- Sep 1 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Wrexham (A)2-1
- Aug 25 · v Brentford (H)1-6
- Aug 22 · v Bristol City (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.