Championship (England) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:30 · Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 64%
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City64%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Bolton Wanderers16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 17 · at Manchester City (A)0-5
- Sep 12 · at Middlesbrough (A)3-4
- Sep 9 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Sheffield United (A)3-1
- Sep 1 · at Stoke City (A)0-1
Bolton Wanderers
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 12 · v Cardiff City (H)1-0
- Sep 8 · v West Ham United (H)2-3
- Sep 5 · at Millwall (A)0-4
- Sep 1 · at Sheffield United (A)2-3
- Aug 29 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.