Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:00 · Norwich City vs Burnley
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 61%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City61%40%+20
OursMarket
Draw21%27%−6
OursMarket
Burnley18%33%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 53% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 67% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 60% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 73% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 55% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
LossWinLossLossWin
- Aug 25 · at Cardiff City (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Millwall (A)0-3
- Aug 15 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)4-1
- May 2 · at Hull City (A)1-2
Burnley
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Aug 26 · at Bradford City (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Notts County (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 0-6-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.