Championship (England) · Mon, Jan 26 · 20:00 · Norwich City vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 39%
A 37% home win. The market says 31%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City37%31%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Coventry City39%42%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 69% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 43% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
WinLossWinWinWin
- Jan 20 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)5-0
- Jan 17 · at Wrexham (A)2-1
- Jan 11 · v Walsall (H)5-1
- Jan 4 · v Stoke City (H)0-2
- Jan 1 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-1
Coventry City
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Jan 20 · v Millwall (H)2-1
- Jan 17 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
- Jan 10 · at Stoke City (A)0-1
- Jan 4 · at Birmingham City (A)2-3
- Jan 1 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.