Championship (England) · Tue, Apr 21 · 18:45 · Norwich City vs Derby County
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City44%46%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Derby County30%27%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 63% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Apr 18 · at Bristol City (A)4-2
- Apr 11 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Apr 6 · at Millwall (A)2-1
- Apr 3 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-0
Derby County
WinLossWinLossWin
- Apr 18 · v Oxford United (H)1-0
- Apr 11 · at Southampton (A)1-2
- Apr 6 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Apr 3 · at Coventry City (A)2-3
- Mar 21 · v Birmingham City (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.