EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Norwich City vs Milton Keynes Dons
Likeliest: Milton Keynes Dons win · 37%
A 37% away win. The market says 17%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City37%61%−24
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+5
OursMarket
Milton Keynes Dons37%17%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 83% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 39% | +24 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 78% | −28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- May 2 · at Hull City (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Swansea City (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Derby County (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Bristol City (A)4-2
- Apr 11 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
Milton Keynes Dons
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- May 2 · at Fleetwood Town (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)3-0
- Apr 18 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)3-1
- Apr 11 · v Bromley (H)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Oldham Athletic (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.