Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 25 · 19:45 · Norwich City vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 43%
A 43% away win. The market says 25%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City30%48%−19
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Oxford United43%25%+18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 50% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 75% | −18 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 52% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 66% | −25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Nov 22 · at Birmingham City (A)1-4
- Nov 8 · v Leicester City (H)1-2
- Nov 5 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
- Nov 1 · v Hull City (H)0-2
- Oct 25 · at Swansea City (A)1-2
Oxford United
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Nov 22 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-1
- Nov 8 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-2
- Nov 4 · v Stoke City (H)0-3
- Nov 1 · v Millwall (H)2-2
- Oct 25 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-9 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.