Championship (England) · Fri, Apr 3 · 14:00 · Norwich City vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 55%
A 55% home win. The market says 49%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City55%49%+6
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−3
OursMarket
Portsmouth22%24%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 51% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 67% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 21 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-0
- Mar 18 · at Southampton (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Preston North End (H)2-0
- Mar 11 · v Sheffield United (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · at Leeds United (A)0-3
Portsmouth
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Mar 21 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-6
- Mar 16 · v Derby County (H)0-1
- Mar 10 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Mar 7 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Feb 28 · v Hull City (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.