Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Norwich City vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 56%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Portsmouth20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 14 · v Southampton (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Swansea City (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)3-4
- Sep 17 · at Manchester City (A)0-5
- Sep 12 · at Middlesbrough (A)3-4
Portsmouth
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 14 · v Sheffield United (H)3-2
- Oct 11 · at Southampton (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Cardiff City (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.