Championship (England) · Wed, Mar 11 · 19:45 · Norwich City vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 43%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City43%38%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Sheffield United33%36%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 62% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 51% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 8 · at Leeds United (A)0-3
- Feb 28 · at Leicester City (A)2-0
- Feb 25 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-0
- Feb 21 · v Birmingham City (H)1-2
- Feb 14 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-1
Sheffield United
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Mar 7 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
- Feb 28 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-0
- Feb 25 · v Coventry City (H)1-2
- Feb 22 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · at Portsmouth (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.