Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 13 · 12:30 · Norwich City vs Southampton
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 51%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City51%27%+23
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Southampton24%48%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 62% | −16 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 52% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 73% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 36% | +31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Dec 9 · at Sheffield United (A)1-1
- Dec 6 · at Watford (A)2-3
- Nov 29 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-1
- Nov 25 · v Oxford United (H)1-1
- Nov 22 · at Birmingham City (A)1-4
Southampton
WinWinLossWinWin
- Dec 9 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-2
- Dec 6 · v Birmingham City (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Millwall (A)2-3
- Nov 25 · v Leicester City (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Charlton Athletic (A)5-1
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.