Championship (England) · Wed, Oct 14 · 18:45 · Norwich City vs Southampton
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Southampton32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 64% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Swansea City (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)3-4
- Sep 17 · at Manchester City (A)0-5
- Sep 12 · at Middlesbrough (A)3-4
- Sep 9 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
Southampton
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Wrexham (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Bristol City (H)4-1
- Sep 8 · v Swansea City (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at Lincoln City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.