Championship (England) · Sun, Jan 4 · 15:00 · Norwich City vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Stoke City30%28%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 62% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Jan 1 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-1
- Dec 29 · v Watford (H)0-1
- Dec 26 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-0
- Dec 20 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Dec 13 · v Southampton (H)2-1
Stoke City
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Jan 1 · at Hull City (A)1-0
- Dec 29 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Dec 26 · v Preston North End (H)0-0
- Dec 20 · at Watford (A)0-1
- Dec 13 · v Swansea City (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.