Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 14:00 · Norwich City vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 51%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City51%56%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+2
OursMarket
Swansea City24%20%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 80% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 73% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Apr 21 · v Derby County (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Bristol City (A)4-2
- Apr 11 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Apr 6 · at Millwall (A)2-1
- Apr 3 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
Swansea City
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Apr 21 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-1
- Apr 18 · v Southampton (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Leicester City (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Apr 3 · at Sheffield United (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.