Championship (England) · Mon, Dec 29 · 19:45 · Norwich City vs Watford
Likeliest: Watford win · 39%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%27%−1
OursMarket
Watford39%36%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 64% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Dec 26 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-0
- Dec 20 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Dec 13 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Dec 9 · at Sheffield United (A)1-1
- Dec 6 · at Watford (A)2-3
Watford
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Dec 26 · at Leicester City (A)2-1
- Dec 20 · v Stoke City (H)1-0
- Dec 13 · at Wrexham (A)2-2
- Dec 9 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Norwich City (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.