FA Cup (England) · Sat, Feb 14 · 15:00 · Norwich City vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 49%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Norwich City49%42%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion25%30%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 70% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 58% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Norwich City
WinWinLossWinWin
- Feb 10 · at Oxford United (A)3-0
- Feb 7 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-0
- Jan 31 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
- Jan 26 · v Coventry City (H)2-1
- Jan 20 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)5-0
West Bromwich Albion
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Feb 10 · at Birmingham City (A)0-0
- Feb 7 · v Stoke City (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Portsmouth (A)0-3
- Jan 23 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Jan 20 · v Norwich City (H)0-5
| Last 10 games | Norwich City | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.