Premier League (England) · Sun, May 24 · 15:00 · Nottingham Forest vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 29%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest53%29%+23
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth24%45%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 55% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 71% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 39% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- May 17 · at Manchester United (A)2-3
- May 10 · v Newcastle United (H)1-1
- May 7 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
- May 4 · at Chelsea (A)3-1
- Apr 30 · v Aston Villa (H)1-0
AFC Bournemouth
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- May 19 · v Manchester City (H)1-1
- May 9 · at Fulham (A)1-0
- May 3 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-0
- Apr 22 · v Leeds United (H)2-2
- Apr 18 · at Newcastle United (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Nottingham Forest form·AFC Bournemouth form·Head-to-head record