Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 17 · 17:30 · Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 51%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest26%16%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Arsenal51%62%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 50% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 48% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 38% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 84% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 20% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Jan 9 · at Wrexham (A)3-3
- Jan 6 · at West Ham United (A)2-1
- Jan 3 · at Aston Villa (A)1-3
- Dec 30 · v Everton (H)0-2
- Dec 27 · v Manchester City (H)1-2
Arsenal
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Jan 14 · at Chelsea (A)3-2
- Jan 11 · at Portsmouth (A)4-1
- Jan 8 · v Liverpool (H)0-0
- Jan 3 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)3-2
- Dec 30 · v Aston Villa (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.