Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:30 · Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 65%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 65% for the away win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest11%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Arsenal65%61%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 20% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Coventry City (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Aston Villa (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Liverpool (A)2-2
Arsenal
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 13 · v Lille (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · v Leeds United (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- Sep 15 · at Ipswich Town (A)4-2
- Sep 12 · at Sunderland (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.