Premier League (England) · Sun, Apr 12 · 13:00 · Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 35%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest44%35%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Aston Villa31%36%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 55% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 64% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 65% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 50% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Apr 9 · at Porto (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)3-0
- Mar 19 · at FC Midtjylland (A)2-1
- Mar 15 · v Fulham (H)0-0
- Mar 12 · v FC Midtjylland (H)0-1
Aston Villa
WinLossWinWinWin
- Apr 9 · at Bologna (A)3-1
- Mar 22 · v West Ham United (H)2-0
- Mar 19 · v LOSC Lille (H)2-0
- Mar 15 · at Manchester United (A)1-3
- Mar 12 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.