Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Apr 30 · 19:00 · Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 36%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest47%36%+11
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Aston Villa27%35%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 65% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 64% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 51% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Apr 24 · at Sunderland (A)5-0
- Apr 19 · v Burnley (H)4-1
- Apr 16 · v Porto (H)1-0
- Apr 12 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
- Apr 9 · at Porto (A)1-1
Aston Villa
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Apr 25 · at Fulham (A)0-1
- Apr 19 · v Sunderland (H)4-3
- Apr 16 · v Bologna (H)4-0
- Apr 12 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- Apr 9 · at Bologna (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.