Premier League (England) · Sun, Nov 30 · 14:05 · Nottingham Forest vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 35%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest54%35%+19
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−6
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion24%37%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 63% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 65% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 49% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Nov 27 · v Malmö FF (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Liverpool (A)3-0
- Nov 9 · v Leeds United (H)3-1
- Nov 6 · at Sturm Graz (A)0-0
- Nov 1 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Nov 22 · v Brentford (H)2-1
- Nov 9 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Nov 1 · v Leeds United (H)3-0
- Oct 29 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Oct 25 · at Manchester United (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Nottingham Forest form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record