Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 16:30 · Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%24%0
OursMarket
Coventry City16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 12 · at Aston Villa (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Liverpool (A)2-2
- Aug 25 · v Leeds United (H)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Leeds United (H)0-1
Coventry City
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 16 · v Aston Villa (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-5
- Sep 5 · at Manchester City (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Hull City (H)0-1
- Aug 25 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.