Premier League (England) · Sun, Feb 1 · 14:00 · Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 46%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−6
OursMarket
Crystal Palace32%25%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 46% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 51% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 75% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 65% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Jan 29 · v Ferencvárosi (H)4-0
- Jan 25 · at Brentford (A)2-0
- Jan 22 · at Sporting Braga (A)0-1
- Jan 17 · v Arsenal (H)0-0
- Jan 9 · at Wrexham (A)3-3
Crystal Palace
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Jan 25 · v Chelsea (H)1-3
- Jan 17 · at Sunderland (A)1-2
- Jan 10 · at Macclesfield (A)1-2
- Jan 7 · v Aston Villa (H)0-0
- Jan 4 · at Newcastle United (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Nottingham Forest form·Crystal Palace form·Head-to-head record