Premier League (England) · Tue, Dec 30 · 19:30 · Nottingham Forest vs Everton
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 45%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Everton30%26%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 42% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 48% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 74% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 63% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Dec 27 · v Manchester City (H)1-2
- Dec 22 · at Fulham (A)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-0
- Dec 11 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Everton (A)0-3
Everton
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Dec 27 · at Burnley (A)0-0
- Dec 20 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Dec 13 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
- Dec 6 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-0
- Dec 2 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.