Premier League (England) · Sun, Mar 15 · 14:00 · Nottingham Forest vs Fulham
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 38%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest38%42%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Fulham38%30%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 50% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 55% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 70% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 59% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Mar 12 · v FC Midtjylland (H)0-1
- Mar 4 · at Manchester City (A)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-2
- Feb 26 · v Fenerbahçe (H)1-2
- Feb 22 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
Fulham
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Mar 8 · v Southampton (H)0-1
- Mar 4 · v West Ham United (H)0-1
- Mar 1 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
- Feb 22 · at Sunderland (A)3-1
- Feb 15 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.