Premier League (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 42%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest53%42%+12
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Leeds United22%31%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 69% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 58% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 58% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- May 24 · v Bournemouth (H)1-1
- May 24 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-1
- May 17 · at Manchester United (A)2-3
- May 10 · v Newcastle United (H)1-1
- May 7 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
Leeds United
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- May 24 · at West Ham United (A)0-3
- May 17 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-0
- May 11 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-1
- May 1 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Apr 26 · at Chelsea (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 1-7-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Nottingham Forest form·Leeds United form·Head-to-head record