EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 19:00 · Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 50%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest50%43%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Leeds United25%30%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 52% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 70% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 57% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 59% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 22 · v Leeds United (H)0-1
- May 24 · v Bournemouth (H)1-1
- May 24 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-1
- May 17 · at Manchester United (A)2-3
- May 10 · v Newcastle United (H)1-1
Leeds United
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Aug 22 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
- May 24 · at West Ham United (A)0-3
- May 17 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-0
- May 11 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-1
- May 1 · v Burnley (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.