Premier League (England) · Sun, Feb 22 · 14:00 · Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 24%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest39%24%+15
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
Liverpool37%52%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 48% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 76% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 31% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Feb 19 · at Fenerbahçe (A)3-0
- Feb 11 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)0-0
- Feb 6 · at Leeds United (A)1-3
- Feb 1 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-1
- Jan 29 · v Ferencvárosi (H)4-0
Liverpool
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Feb 20 · at Cerro (A)1-1
- Feb 18 · v Independiente Medellín (H)1-2
- Feb 14 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)3-0
- Feb 14 · v Defensor Sporting (H)1-2
- Feb 11 · at Sunderland (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.