Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 27 · 12:30 · Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 40%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 55%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest40%18%+22
OursMarket
Draw26%22%+4
OursMarket
Manchester City34%60%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 55% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 40% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 82% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 23% | +31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 22 · at Fulham (A)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-0
- Dec 11 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Everton (A)0-3
- Dec 3 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-0
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 20 · v West Ham United (H)3-0
- Dec 17 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Dec 14 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-0
- Dec 10 · at Real Madrid (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · v Sunderland (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Nottingham Forest form·Manchester City form·Head-to-head record