Premier League (England) · Sun, May 10 · 13:00 · Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 52%
We make it 74% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest52%35%+17
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Newcastle United25%38%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 55% | +19 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 62% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 65% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 48% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
WinWinWinWinLoss
- May 7 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
- May 4 · at Chelsea (A)3-1
- Apr 30 · v Aston Villa (H)1-0
- Apr 24 · at Sunderland (A)5-0
- Apr 19 · v Burnley (H)4-1
Newcastle United
LossLossLossLossWin
- May 2 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Apr 12 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v Sunderland (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Nottingham Forest form·Newcastle United form·Head-to-head record