Premier League (England) · Sun, Dec 14 · 14:00 · Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 37%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest53%37%+16
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur24%34%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 45% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 66% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 63% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 52% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
WinLossWinLossWin
- Dec 11 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Everton (A)0-3
- Dec 3 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Nov 30 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Nov 27 · v Malmö FF (H)3-0
Tottenham Hotspur
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Dec 9 · v Slavia Praha (H)3-0
- Dec 6 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Dec 2 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Nov 29 · v Fulham (H)1-2
- Nov 26 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)3-5
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Nottingham Forest form·Tottenham Hotspur form·Head-to-head record