Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 39%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest49%39%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur26%33%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 61% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 54% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Aug 29 · at Liverpool (A)2-2
- Aug 25 · v Leeds United (H)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Leeds United (H)0-1
- May 24 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Bournemouth (H)1-1
Tottenham Hotspur
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 29 · v Newcastle United (H)0-2
- Aug 26 · v Charlton Athletic (H)5-1
- Aug 22 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- May 24 · v Everton (H)1-0
- May 19 · at Chelsea (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Nottingham Forest form·Tottenham Hotspur form·Head-to-head record