Premier League (England) · Wed, Feb 11 · 19:30 · Nottingham Forest vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 46%
A 29% away win. The market says 19%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Nottingham Forest46%56%−11
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Wolverhampton Wanderers29%19%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 81% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 44% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 75% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Nottingham Forest
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Feb 6 · at Leeds United (A)1-3
- Feb 1 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-1
- Jan 29 · v Ferencvárosi (H)4-0
- Jan 25 · at Brentford (A)2-0
- Jan 22 · at Sporting Braga (A)0-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 7 · v Chelsea (H)1-3
- Jan 31 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at Manchester City (A)0-2
- Jan 18 · v Newcastle United (H)0-0
- Jan 10 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)6-1
| Last 10 games | Nottingham Forest | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Nottingham Forest form·Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Head-to-head record