Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Sep 22 · 18:00 · Notts County vs Grimsby Town
Likeliest: Notts County win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Notts County43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Grimsby Town31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Notts County
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at Reading (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Bradford City (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Huddersfield Town (A)1-1
- Sep 1 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Burton Albion (H)2-1
Grimsby Town
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Crawley Town (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Bristol Rovers (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Cheltenham Town (A)2-2
- Sep 1 · at Accrington Stanley (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Fleetwood Town (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Notts County | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.