League One (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 11:30 · Notts County vs Leicester City
Likeliest: Notts County win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 26%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Notts County54%26%+27
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−2
OursMarket
Leicester City21%46%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 54% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 74% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 36% | +36 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Notts County
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Aug 8 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- May 25 · v Salford City (H)3-0
- May 15 · v Chesterfield (H)0-0
- May 10 · at Chesterfield (A)1-0
- May 2 · v Bristol Rovers (H)1-1
Leicester City
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Aug 8 · v Northampton Town (H)1-0
- May 2 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-0
- Apr 24 · v Millwall (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Hull City (H)2-2
- Apr 18 · at Portsmouth (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Notts County | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.