League One (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:30 · Notts County vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Notts County35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Oxford United37%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Notts County
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 22 · v Grimsby Town (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Reading (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Bradford City (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Huddersfield Town (A)1-1
- Sep 1 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)1-1
Oxford United
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 6 · at Exeter City (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Cambridge United (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Burton Albion (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Leicester City (A)4-0
- Sep 1 · at Huddersfield Town (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Notts County | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.