League One (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday
Likeliest: Sheffield Wednesday win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Notts County34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Sheffield Wednesday37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Notts County
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)0-2
- Oct 13 · v Nottingham Forest U21 (H)5-1
- Oct 10 · v Oxford United (H)1-2
- Sep 22 · v Grimsby Town (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Reading (A)0-2
Sheffield Wednesday
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)5-0
- Oct 10 · at Huddersfield Town (A)2-2
- Oct 6 · v Sunderland U21 (H)2-0
- Sep 22 · at Salford City (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Stockport County (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Notts County | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.