Serie B (Brazil) · Mon, Oct 12 · 22:00 · Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
Likeliest: Novorizontino win · 89%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Novorizontino89%86%+3
OursMarket
Draw8%10%−2
OursMarket
Ponte Preta3%4%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 71% | −19 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 40% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 97% | 96% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 11% | 14% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 96% | 95% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.8 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Novorizontino
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 8 · at Náutico (A)2-0
- Oct 2 · v Goiás (H)3-0
- Sep 25 · v São Bernardo (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Ceará (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · v Cuiabá (H)1-1
Ponte Preta
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 7 · v Juventude (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Cuiabá (A)0-2
- Sep 29 · at Botafogo-SP (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v CRB (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Londrina (A)0-6
| Last 10 games | Novorizontino | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 1-0-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 0-0-10 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.